Summary
This analysis is presented by LlamaRisk and Blockworks Advisory, members of the Risk Committee leading risk recommendations on the Reserve Fund. We will periodically re-evaluate the fund’s size based on market conditions, changes in USDe’s backing, and projected capital needs, with the previous monthly update published in early January.
As market conditions continued to trend negative through January and into early February, USDe TVL remained idle at ~$6.5B, while Ethena continued to manage risks effectively. In particular, exposure to perpetual futures hedging remained balanced, supporting orderly operations under particularly stressed market conditions these past few days.
LlamaRisk’s methodology currently suggests a need for $23M in the conservative scenario and $17M on the moderate side, while Blockworks Advisory recommends approximately $18.2M. Therefore, the current fund size ($62M) is about 3x larger than potential tail-risk requirements under this TVL level. Continuous monitoring of the recommendations is available on LlamaRisk’s Ethena Risk Dashboard and Blockworks’ Risk tab on the Ethena Dashboard.
Source: LlamaRisk’s Ethena Risk Dashboard, February 7th, 2026
Reserve Fund Composition
The Reserve Fund is currently composed of USDtb and a USDtb/USDC liquidity pool position, totaling approximately $62M:
- Quantity of USDtb: $41.93M
- Quantity of USDtb-USDC: $19.99M
Source: LlamaRisk’s Ethena Risk Dashboard, February 7th, 2026
Source: Blockworks’ Ethena Risk Dashboard, Feb 9th, 2026
LlamaRisk Methodology & Estimations
Utilizing the Reserve Fund drawdown methodology developed by LlamaRisk, which considers current and historical market conditions, USDe collateral distribution, stablecoin buffer, and sUSDe supply, we present up-to-date drawdown simulations to estimate current Reserve Fund capitalization needs.
Conservative Scenario
In this scenario, according to the methodology, we assume all perpetual positions would need to be closed within a 24-hour time span, incurring 50 bps in negative funding rate losses and 50 bps in slippage losses. From this, we derive the following estimate for the required Reserve Fund size:
Source: Reserve Fund Drawdown Methodology, February 7th, 2026
Simulating this short-term risk scenario results in a currently recommended Reserve Fund size estimation of ~$23 million. With this Reserve Fund size, Ethena would remain solvent and be able to serve USDe redemptions, even under the worst tail-risk scenario that would require closing all perpetual positions in a short time frame.
Moderate Scenario
The moderate scenario assumes that a decline in funding rates would trigger a significant amount of sUSDe to enter the unstaking queue, leading to a potential wave of USDe redemptions. The maximum amount of USDe is based on the current circulating supply and the assumption that USDe in liquidity pools will not be redeemed. It is also assumed that Ethena will prioritize timely redemptions to prevent the USDe price from de-pegging, using its stablecoin buffer for instant redemptions and closing perpetual positions for the rest. Additionally, the scenario assumes that redemptions requiring the closure of perpetual positions will be managed with slippage capped at 75 basis points and funding rate losses limited to 5 basis points, while any remaining positions could face up to 50 basis points in funding losses before being gradually wound down with lower slippage.
Source: Reserve Fund Drawdown Methodology, February 7th, 2026
This scenario results in a currently recommended Reserve Fund size of ~$17 million. With this Reserve Fund size, Ethena could manage a meaningful redemption event by utilizing its liquid buffer and unwinding positions in a more orderly manner, without incurring excessive slippage.
Blockworks Advisory Methodology & Estimations
Assuming a highly conservative scenario where Ethena chooses to unwind all perps positions within 24 hours during a severe market downturn, the Reserve Fund needs to cover two key costs: negative funding rates during that window and slippage from exiting positions. Note that the likelihood of requiring 100% position closure in 24 hours is very low and this scenario addresses a worst-case possibility in terms of funding rates.
To estimate funding costs, we can use a dynamic model that builds on the approach of looking at the share of backing in perpetuals by also factoring in the specific assets and venues involved, allowing for a nuanced assessment. The model considers the most extreme historical funding events, specifically the worst 0.1% of datapoints for each asset and exchange pair, and applies those rates to Ethena’s current allocation to estimate potential funding cost exposure under stress. This becomes especially important as more volatile collateral assets like SOL are added, and as certain venues prove better equipped than others to handle extreme market conditions. The same total allocation can carry very different risk profiles depending on where and how it’s deployed, which in turn affects the size needed for the Reserve Fund.
Slippage is the second major cost, incurred both when closing short positions and selling spot. We estimate this at 50bps in a worst-case scenario, which was the maximum slippage observed by Ethena when trading ETH perpetual futures during the recent Bybit hack.
Current Estimation and Historical Context
Based on this methodology, the Reserve Fund would today need to currently hold approximately $18.2M to be sufficiently capitalized. At this level, Ethena would be able to fully unwind its current positions even under historically extreme negative funding conditions, while maintaining solvency throughout.
Source: Blockworks’ Ethena Risk Dashboard, Feb 9th, 2026
To put this into perspective, consider the estimated Reserve Fund requirement as a percentage of total backing. It highlights how the composition of assets can significantly influence the appropriate size of the Reserve Fund, even proportionally to total backing. While current estimates suggest that the Reserve Fund’s needs are below its current capitalization, it’s important to note that Ethena is expected to act swiftly to capture the highest yields available.
Recent Market Turbulence
Despite elevated market turbulence over the past week—characterized by high ETH and BTC volatility—Ethena fared well operationally:
- Redemptions and net outflows remained low relative to circulating supply, indicating limited deleveraging pressure.
- The sUSDe unstaking queue remained surprisingly low, suggesting constrained medium-term redemption overhang.
- Perpetual futures hedging exposure remained balanced, supporting orderly management of funding-rate and basis risks during the volatility spike as well as potentially high redemption pressure.
Source: LlamaRisk’s Ethena Risk Dashboard, February 7th, 2026
Recommendation
According to the consensus of recommendations, the current Reserve Fund size of ~$62M remains oversized and is sufficient to cover potential drawdowns as outlined in our modeled scenarios. This means that no immediate capitalization increases are needed for the Reserve Fund.